Wednesday, August 5, 2009

It's the debt, Stupid!


This week I got into a debate on Facebook (if you can call it that) with a friend-of-a-friend and I found myself trying to explain a few basic economic principles. Long story short, once the guy realized he was playing checkers, while I played chess, he shut up. I’m told he went on to post his own status saying, "I just love people that are under 25 and think they fully understand how the world works just because they've had a few college level economic classes..." All I can say is thanks for believing I'm under 25 and I hope you live in a great state like South Carolina where we have enough smart voters to cancel you out.

This got me thinking. Do some people really believe this government spending won't affect their pocket book? Do they think it must be good for them because they don't have to pay for it??

First, if you believe that, you're either stupid or ignorant. I still haven't found a cure for stupidity but we're all ignorant from time to time so I’ll try to help with an example of why excess government spending is bad for everyone.

President Obama's administration has doubled our annual deficit to over $2 TRILLION. This staggering figure represents nearly $7,000 for every man, woman and child in America. Once you figure only about a third actually pay taxes, this is over $20,000 PER TAXPAYER in excess what you already pay.

The government can't levy enough taxes in the short-term to cover this deficit without crippling our economy. Therefore, in addition to tax hikes, the Obama administration is flooding the market with record amounts of government debt (bonds). This is really not much different than you and I borrowing money, which brings me to my point.

When we borrow money an investor ultimately holds our debt. When we pay it back, he collects the principle along with interest. The interest rates we pay are driven by the investor’s appetite to hold our debt and the new government bonds will compete with our next loan for investors’ dollars. As the government over saturates the market, bond prices will fall which drives yield up. Let’s look at a simplified example of what this means.

Let’s assume the government issues a $100 one-year bond at 5% interest, but investors are only willing to pay $90 due to excess supply. When that bond matures the investor will still receive $105 (the $100 face value plus 5% interest). That’s a $15 return on a $90 investment. When the price fell, it drove the yield to 17% ($15/$90).

If an investor can buy government bonds at a yield of 17%, which they could in the early 80's, why would they ever buy our loans at 6%? To make our debt more attractive to investors the rate has to go up...way up!

This impacts all consumer debt from mortgages to credit cards. Excess government spending will drive up our cost to borrow money, which for most Americans represents their largest household expense.

For those smart enough to connect the dots, the next place this leads is inflation. That loaf of bread you're paying $1.99 for today might cost $4.00 in a few years. A $35,000 car becomes $70,000. Again, we saw inflation like this in the early 80s and given the unprecedented magnitude of current government spending I believe our next round of inflation could be even worse.

The national debt will impact all of us for years to come. We must take a stand. The time to control spending is now. I'm not saying it will be easy, but American families balance their budget every day and it's time for the government to do the same.

Next up is this MASSIVE health care reform Obama is trying to cram through congress. Please, let your voice be heard. Write or call your representatives and tell them we just can't afford it.

Stepping down from the soapbox,

Jeff French

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

When will Yahoo and Microsoft do something?

I just don't know how much longer Yahoo can hold out on forming a strategic partnership with Microsoft. I'm sure the recent release of Bing has Microsoft chomping at the bit to serve search results to Yahoo's audience.

I couldn't help but notice the favorable review Carol Bartz gave to Bing on today's Yahoo Q2 earnings call. It sounded pretty scripted and my gut tells me this deal is close.

Rumor has it Yahoo still wants to sell the farm but Microsoft is not interested. Given the current state of the economy I think that's likely true but I think both companies understand they need each other to take on Google long-term.

I predict we will see a formal search partnership between Yahoo and Microsoft on the search front within the next 90 days and I think these companies eventually come together down the road once the broader economy sorts itself out.

We'll see.

On a side note, our team is looking closely at Bing's API and we may also be adding it as a search alternative on Startlike. The reviews continue to be favorable and I've also found it to be a solid product.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

3 secrets of great presentations

Startlike is close to being ready for prime-time and I just started pulling together some thoughts for a few upcoming presentations.

I've done pitches for just about every type of audience ranging from angel investors and private equity firms to potential clients, partners and employees. Presentations differ based on your audience, but whether it's Peter Thiel or your mom, every product presentation must clearly answer two basic questions: 1) What does it do? and 2) Why do I need it?

In my younger (and dumber) years I've had my share of presentation missteps. In fact, I would pay good money to have videos of myself giving the original PriceJester investor pitches back in 2000 just to see it all again through wiser eyes. Let's just say I'm pretty sure I've come a long way and I'd like to share a few pointers so others can learn from my mistakes.

Here are 3 of my must follow product presentation tips:

1) Show the product in the first 60 seconds. A politico friend once told me that politics are about 3 things; the candidate, the candidate and the candidate. As obvious as it might seem, a product presentation is also about 3 things....you can guess what they are.

2) Tell the audience how your product solves one of their problems. During your presentation, set the problem on a metaphorical tee and use your product demo to knock it out of the proverbial park. Your product does solve a real problem, right?

3) Finish your demo in 5 minutes and move into Q&A. If you can't do it, go back and iterate to simplify your product until you can. I'm not saying you should be able to cover every detail in 5 minutes flat, but you should be able to clearly explain the core features and solve the problem. Trying to cover too many things will lose the audience. If your product is good, and you explain it well, the Q&A will allow you to explore more features in response to specific questions. Good Q&A engages the audience by forcing them to think and ask insightful questions. If they don't have any questions you've either a) struck oil (stop drilling) or b) struck out (better luck next time).


I really don't think you can go wrong with these tips. Good luck on your next pitch.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Time to market as a predictor of success

Over the years I've been privileged to work on many new products. Some have been quite successful while others have been....well, not so much.

I recently realized that I can't name a single project I'd consider a success that took more than 1 week to develop into a functional prototype.

For the purpose of this thought exercise, "success" means it went on to generate more than $1 million in revenue or attracted at least 1 million users.

So, I'm able to think of 9 things that meet the criteria above and 100% of them, a full 9/9, were prototyped in about a week. Just to clarify, they all required continued support and development but I could touch and feel each one in 7 days.

I have tried many projects that took longer for the first pass. Some were very ambitious with development schedules of 6 months or more. I just added up 10 such projects and stopped counting because these are painful memories. I literally don't have a single one that managed $250K in revenue or 250K users, let alone the criteria listed above.

I think there is a lesson here.

-Jeff

Monday, June 8, 2009

5 rules to start-up success

I'm keeping this post short because I want you to read it.

If you're a start-up founder following these rules will increase your odds of success.

Be Simple.
Strive for simplicity in everything you do.

Focus.
Your current iteration is the only thing that matters.

Adapt.
Every failure brings you one step closer to success. Be willing to change course quickly and efficiently.

Be Frugal.
It's all about finding an iteration that works before you run out of money. Every dollar you save makes the runway a bit longer.

Be Happy.
Your company and products feed off of you. Find balance in your life and stay happy.

Sunday, June 7, 2009

Some Valley down side...

I'm not posting this to bash the Valley (or California) but sometimes the rest of us are made to feel a bit "location inadequate" for our web start-up. This post by Nolan Bushnell speaks to the dark side of California's business regulations and why it's not the same place to start a company today that it once was. It's worth a read and will probably make you appreciate your home state a little more.

In addition to his commentary on California, the following excerpt deserves special attention:

It is often said that as goes California, so goes the nation. The passage of Sarbanes-Oxley--which has not brought to justice any new bad guys, but has cost American business billions of dollars and kept many of them from going public in the U.S.--is a sign to me that California-style regulation may be taking root at the federal level. When the laws governing business become nothing more than wasteful harassment, and companies are punished simply for doing business, everyone becomes poorer. Government, whether at the local, state, or federal level, must provide the framework for the best life for its people.

California has many great features but few entrepreneurs put the state's business code and tax structure on the list. We must all be on the lookout for what Busnell calls "California-style regulation" at the local, state and federal levels. We must do our part to keep America pro-business.

For what it's worth, if anyone is looking for a new place to call home, we'd love to have you in sunny South Carolina.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Follow @JeffColumbia on Twitter


Ok, I admit it, I was wrong about Twitter. I setup an account long ago to test it out (I was definitely an early adopter) and I just didn’t think it would go mainstream so I stopped using it. I can’t remember my original user name or the email address I used to sign up….oh well, we all miss a few here and there right?

I have always had a lot of respect for Evan Williams and Biz Stone (Twitter founders formerly of Blogger start-up fame) and they have done another great job here…kudos guys. That said, it’s time for me to fire Twitter back up.

I figured I’d do a quick post on what you can expect by following me.

Web Entrepreneurship – I did my first "real" start-up when I was 24. I’ve had a few wins and many losses. My newest company is called Startlike. I’ll tweet about business and web start-up life away from Silicon Valley. I’ll be sure to feature businesses I think won’t make it…like Twitter ;-)

Sports – I enjoy following sports and I tend to run my mouth about it.

Fishing & Golf – I am an avid outdoorsman and I enjoy playing golf. I’ll probably use Twitter to tell some lies.

Yeah, it’s an eclectic mix and I’m sure there will be other golden nuggets of wisdom…lol.

So…Follow me on Twitter (@JeffColumbia).

Hey Jeff, Bing is a Startlike rip-off!

This week the world was introduced to Microsoft’s new search engine, Bing. Almost immediately, I started getting messages alerting me that Microsoft had “ripped off” Startlike. I assume they are referring to the background photos and image tags on the Bing start page.

Well, photo backgrounds and image tagging are nothing new and many sites employ similar functionality. Let me just clear the air by saying I don’t see Bing as a Startlike “rip-off”. Bing is as a search engine that happens to use a photo background. Startlike is a start page covering a topic you are passionate about with a new image and a few hotlinks every day. It has the basic functionality you need, like web search powered by Google, along with tools to explore your passion and meet others who share your interest. While they might have some similarities at first glance, Startlike and Bing are very different. In fact, I am excited about Bing for a few reasons.

It’s $100 Million+ of consumer education for Startlike.
Since Startlike has some unique core features (specifically a photo background that changes daily with image tag hotlinks) it requires basic user education before diving into the nuts and bolts. With Microsoft spending $100 million promoting Bing, many new people will experience this functionality. Hopefully, when they later visit Startlike for the first time they will already have an idea of how those basics work and we can jump to explaining our organization by interest channels to quickly make the site more relevant to them.

We need a true competitor to Google.
Microsoft is our best chance to provide a real search alternative. Google is great, and we obviously selected them to power search on Startlike. However, having just one entity parse and disseminate the world’s information is a bit unsettling. Hopefully Bing will become a viable alternative. If so, I believe the competition will push both companies to do more and better things.


I’ll be watching to see how Bing is received and how it develops from here. I did notice their image tags look a little better than ours. Perhaps we should spruce things up a bit…;-)

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Yes, Facebook will do $550M revenue in 2009.

Facebook just closed its latest round of capital and, even though the Digital Sky Technologies (DST) valuation of $10B is a significant haircut from the $15B on Microsoft’s $240M infusion last year, Facebook seems happy.

DST basically controls the Internet in Russia and with Facebook’s international growth objectives the partnership seems to make a lot of sense. It’s not clear what Facebook intends to do with the money but I’m betting on a series of acquisitions.

Many in the tech space dismissed the MSFT valuation by saying the deal was more about a strategic partnership and didn’t represent a true value of the company. I think that’s valid but this investment appears to be different and all indications point to DST honestly believing the company is worth $10B.

Why do they think it’s worth so much? Well, that’s a complicated and multi-faceted discussion where opinions could vary widely on every component of value. However, one of the factors has to be revenue growth. I have seen several posts doubting the $550M revenue projection Facebook was supposedly pitching in this latest round but, for the record, I believe they will beat this number.

I don’t have a copy of Facebook’s general ledger but I do spend a lot of time digesting board and management reports with several covering Facebook ad campaigns. I have seen how recent product iterations have impacted price and performance and Facebook has consistently moved things in the right direction over the past 18 months.

In total, I have detailed access to over $15M (annual run rate) of Facebook media buys. Although this only represents 3% of Facebook’s projected revenue, my opinion is based in large part on fact and personal experience. Without getting too specific, these media buys range from direct response (DR) to branding campaigns. In addition, I have spoken with numerous media buyers and there’s a lot of buzz around Facebook ads.

Facebook ads are meeting ROI objectives in the DR channel and nearly everyone is looking to expand in an effort to keep up with Facebook’s growth. Many are working hard on international campaigns, which is a huge opportunity for Facebook. Providing respectable ROI to DR buyers enables Facebook to unload excess impressions. The better the ROI, the more DR buyers compete for remnant inventory and the more valuable it becomes for Facebook.

Facebook also recognizes the importance of providing brand buyers with engaging ads higher in the clickstream. As they continue to iterate these products I believe they will attract meaningful brand dollars. Branding agencies are a little behind their DR counterparts on leveraging the huge supply of social impressions but they all seem to be working on various Facebook campaigns. I expect to see a continued shift from more traditional online media into social with Facebook leading the way.

So, what will all of this equal in 2009 revenue? The line is $550M. I’ve got the over and I’m taking friendly wagers.

What does it mean for the rest of us? I'll try to offer some thoughts on that a bit later.

Monday, May 25, 2009

My first 34 years...an abbreviated autobiography.

My name is Jeff French and I am a technology entrepreneur from Columbia, SC. Welcome to my new weblog. I'll use this first post to summarize my background and bring it current. Here goes...

My Early Years:
I grew up in rural South Carolina. My mother prepared meals in the school cafeteria and my father was a factory worker and truck driver. I attended public school and rarely missed a Sunday in church. I was taught to love God and my family. I was also taught at a young age to work hard and always do my best.

I attended Coker College, a small private liberal arts school in Hartsville, South Carolina, with the help of a few scholarships and grants. In 1997, I earned a Bachelor of Science Degree in Business Administration with a concentration in Accounting. I was the first in my family to finish college.

From the time I was a teenager I dreamed of someday working for myself. My first entrepreneurial endeavor was a small events services company I started in school. It helped buy a few textbooks but that was about it.

Late in college I became fascinated with the Internet. By graduation I was seriously considering a few business models but life was quickly sending me in another direction. I was blessed to have an opportunity to join PricewaterhouseCoopers upon graduation and serve in the firm’s Audit and Business Advisory Services (ABAS) practice and to marry my high school sweetheart shortly thereafter.

Hello Real World:
Working 12 hour days at PwC and trying to be a good husband didn’t leave much time for moonlighting but I literally spent every spare moment trying to figure out what I wanted to do. I knew I wanted to start my own business and I knew it would be on the Internet.

My career with the firm was going well and, by making Senior Associate in less than 2 years, I was on the fast track. Then, in the summer of 1999 a unique opportunity arose to join one of my clients, Netbank. Despite becoming a recent casualty of the 2008 crash, the company's claim to fame was being one of the first Internet only banks. They had recently experienced attrition in their high-risk asset division, primarily sub-prime mortgage securitizations and mortgage servicing rights assets (things I specialized in modeling and valuing at PwC). I was forthright with the management team that I intended to start a company in the near future but they asked if I could commit at least 6 months and we worked out a deal. I joined Netbank as AVP of Risk Analysis & Management.

Until this point my wife had been passively supportive of my entrepreneurial desires but she has never shared my risk tolerance and was afraid of what leaving the workforce could mean if I failed. I remember well the night in early 2000 I told her I was going to “do it”. I was going to resign from Netbank and raise money to support my idea of creating “Sunday sales flyers” for online stores. These stores often had sales just like their brick and mortar counterparts but unless you were on their mailing list, or happened to visit their site the day of a sale, you would never know about it. This was a problem I knew I could solve.

My First Real Start-Up:
I recruited a few partners to join me and we built a 30,000 member subscriber list and signed a few advertising commitments to prove the concept. The name was PriceJester, and it was our time…my time.

My wife was scared, but she agreed the plan was solid and supported me. As a sign of commitment to potential investors I was the first to quit my job and we quickly raised a $750,000 angel round. I’m proud that most of my managers from PwC and Netbank invested along with several clients and some people I’ve known my entire life. We were off to the races.

Bubble 1.0:
We had no idea what the years ahead would hold and in early 2001 the dot com bubble burst. Most of our advertisers were unable to raise additional funding and they went bankrupt. Our advertiser contracts weren’t worth the paper they were printed on. We had burned through half our capital and the odds of raising more money in this climate were zilch. Times were hard and we had to go back to the drawing board if we wanted to survive.

At this point, our subscriber list was already approaching 1 million. It was obvious that our ability to build and manage opt-in email databases was our best asset. We positioned the business to take advantage of this competency.

In less than 30 days our systems were retooled, the company was rebranded and we became a direct marketing firm. Our services helped clients build their own opt-in databases and deliver email advertisements. These changes enabled us to survive the recession following the crash.

In 2003 we launched the AdDrive Affiliate Network and it soon became our flagship brand. It was synergistic with our existing business by matching email publisher clients with a growing list of merchants seeking new customers on a Cost Per Acquisition (CPA) basis. Our publishers would promote the merchant’s advertisements while earning a commission for every lead or sale. By serving as an intermediary, and facilitating these transactions, we would receive a fee. The early results were good but not great.

The Big Bang:
By 2004 a new type of online promotion was gaining popularity. It allowed consumers to earn a reward by fulfilling various requirements including trials of various products and services. These were often referred to as “free iPod promotions” because many of the first iterations allowed consumers to earn one of the revolutionary new MP3 players, which had also just been released.

We already had a wide network of publishers and third party merchants in place. The only thing missing was a system to administer this new breed of promotion, which we quickly developed.

Finally, all the pieces of the puzzle came together. We had innovative promotions for our affiliate publishers and we were able to deliver high volume leads and sales to our advertisers. The business exploded to post over 1,000% revenue growth in 2004.

The next several years found us scaling infrastructure, iterating promotions, working with investment bankers to plan an exit strategy and navigating the rapidly evolving regulatory landscape. Times were hectic and stressful but, as an industry leader, the company was consistently delivering over 20 million new leads and customers to our clients every year.

A Time for Change:
Everyone who lives long enough will have a few life changing events. For me, one happened in the fall of 2007 when I blew out my Achilles tendon playing basketball and needed surgery. For the first time in my life something managed to slow me down. I’m not comparing a sports injury to the types of serious health problems many people face but for me, it was an eye opening experience. After the surgery I began to reflect on life and my professional career. I realized I wanted to go in a new direction for a few reasons.

Creating something from nothing is my passion and being in a start-up environment is where I thrive. AdDrive was fairly mature and its needs no longer aligned perfectly with my strengths. Likewise, the company wasn’t feeding my creative desires.

I was also frustrated with the pitfalls of direct marketing and taking grenades for my clients and publishers. Throughout its history AdDrive has been an active member with various trade associations and the company adheres to, or exceeds, all regulations, marketing best practices and advertising disclosure guidelines. The company also maintains an A rating with the Better Business Bureau. Despite these facts, some people become annoyed or angry at various forms of direct marketing. In addition, successful campaigns require creative delivery and when people only hear the sizzle, and don’t look closer at the steak; they sometimes end up with buyer’s remorse. Unhappy consumers often voice frustrations on blogs and comment boards with the marketer taking most of the heat.

Direct marketing is an important industry. It accounts for billions in annual sales in the United States and millions of jobs. However, if you look up “thankless profession” in the dictionary you’ll find a direct marketer’s picture.

To sum it up, seven years of direct marketing had left me jaded and I wanted to feel like my professional efforts were making a difference in the world. It was time for me to make a change.

Bubble 2.0:
Shortly after working with the board of directors on a transition plan, I announced to our shareholders that I was stepping down. I didn’t know exactly what I was going to do but I was excited, energized and ready for anything. I had a sense of euphoria and optimism I hadn’t experienced for years. The last time I felt this good professionally was just before the crash in 2001.

History has a way of repeating itself and after backing a few start-ups, and beginning one of my own, the banking system froze, the stock market crashed and the government bailouts began. It was eerily similar to the last time I was in a start-up, but worse because I had more to juggle personally and professionally this time around.

Back at AdDrive difficult decisions had to be made and the board decided to cut headcount by over 60% and aggressively reduce fixed costs. Market conditions forced me to pitch in significantly and support the business. I stopped short of stepping back into a full time role but the demands on my time were meaningful. I already had a team building a new product and I found myself working two jobs along with several board positions. For a while I was barely able to breathe.

A New Beginning:
Despite the demands on my time I continued to press forward on my new project. It’s called Lifefitter and the company’s mission, to create friendships, is one of my most ambitious ever.

Social websites like Facebook and MySpace have done a great job keeping us hyper-connected with the people we know but these services don’t do much to help us make new friends. Our strategy is to develop web applications that enable people to meet others who share their interests. We planned to develop a broad social platform while creating buzz by announcing a series of active lifestyle brands and allowing people to request beta invitations for the upcoming release. The response was good but several months into the project it became obvious our strategy was flawed. We were not getting enough traction in specific geographic locations to fuel a social network that was reliant on bringing people together for offline meetings. Once again, I found myself back at the proverbial drawing board.

Another Iteration:
We needed to provide immediate value to early adopters so they wouldn’t abandon the product before we were able scale. I tried to evaluate the most basic ways people use social tools looking for an angle we could attack. I locked myself in the office and spent days looking for answers. I found thousands of social applications that had failed to gain meaningful traction. Then finally, it hit me.

Every time I began a new web session Google was there, staring me in the face. I took time to look at other ubiquitous start pages and found two basic extremes. On one end you have Google with just a search bar and on the other end are portals like Yahoo with an information overload. A few start-ups have tried to innovate by developing widget based products that allow users to customize their page but, despite heavy venture funding, none have achieved scale beyond the large players with products like iGoogle and My Yahoo.

While promoting Lifefitter we focused on active lifestyle interests like hiking, SCUBA diving, golf and several others. We found an audience that desired to learn more about their interests and meet others who share their passion. If we could build a start page focused on these interests, I believed to we could offer people something better. Just like that, Startlike was born.

Startlike is a simple browser start page covering a topic you are passionate about and you get a new photo and a few relevant hotlinks every day. It has the basics you need like Google search, quick links to your favorite sites and custom news feeds. It also features a discussion board where you can meet other Startlikers who share your passion.

At its core the product is simple and relevant. We hope this combination will acquire and retain users and, as it scales, we will add more social features to create friendships. So far, the feedback has been overwhelmingly positive. People like it and the praise from our users is a refreshing change from the world of direct marketing.

The Road Ahead:
I will be working hard to manage my personal and professional commitments while focusing on the continued development of Lifefitter and the Startlike project. We have some good ideas to make it better and increase distribution. I’m looking forward to the road ahead and you can follow my progress here and on the Startlike blog.